Read more: "2013 Smart Guide: 10 ideas that will shape the year"
Melting, rather than warming, is likely to be the big climate issue of 2013.
Predictions that a major El Niño warming event - and the coming solar maximum - would help make next year the warmest on record now seem wide of the mark. All eyes will probably be on the Arctic instead. Some say the record loss of sea ice in summer 2012 was a one-off, others that it was the start of a runaway collapse. If the latter, summer sea ice could virtually disappear as early as 2016. What is certain is that the ice reforming now will be the thinnest on record, priming it for destruction next summer.
A new record melt would allow scary satellite images of an even bluer Arctic to coincide with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's next assessment, due in September (though a draft has been leaked - see "What leaked IPCC report really says on climate change"). Such pictures will be a sombre backdrop as the IPCC raises its previously cautious estimates of future polar melting and the speed of sea-level rise.
With warming of at least 2 °C now unstoppable, politicians at the recent Doha climate talks spent much time discussing how to adapt. What they need is predictions for individual countries. But the IPCC will admit that it still cannot say whether many regions will get wetter or drier. And it will quietly bury its confident predictions, made in 2007, of more frequent droughts, which turned out to rest largely on flawed analyses.
There is growing uncertainty, too, about the outlook for the northern hemisphere. Research in 2012 implicated the fast-warming Arctic in a slowing of the jet stream. This is bringing extreme weather to mid-latitudes, including prolonged cold spells in Europe, Russia's 2010 heatwave, and record droughts in the US in 2011 and 2012. Watch out for more weird weather in 2013.
If you would like to reuse any content from New Scientist, either in print or online, please contact the syndication department first for permission. New Scientist does not own rights to photos, but there are a variety of licensing options available for use of articles and graphics we own the copyright to.
All comments should respect the New Scientist House Rules. If you think a particular comment breaks these rules then please use the "Report" link in that comment to report it to us.
If you are having a technical problem posting a comment, please contact technical support.
The students and staff of Sandy Hook Elementary School will return to school on Thursday for the first time since the shooting rampage that left 20 young students and six adults dead. The students will be in a new building where their old classrooms have been completely recreated.
Instead of returning to the halls of Sandy Hook Elementary School in Newtown, Conn., they will be going to the building that used to be the Chalk Hill Middle School in Monroe, about six miles away.
Sandy Hook school was shut since Adam Lanza carried out his massacre shortly before Christmas.
Since principal Dawn Hochsprung was one of the victims of the shooting, the school will be led by interim principal Donna Page. Page was the school's prior principal who retired in 2010.
"Please know the inspiration you and your children have been to my staff and me as we connect with you at Chalk Hill," Page wrote in a letter posted on the school's website. "Be assured that the towns of Monroe and Newtown are working night and day to ensure the facility is safe, secure, and fully operational for our return," Page wrote.
The school will host a walk-through for families on Wednesday and "Opening Day" will be Thursday.
"I want to reassure you that we understand many parents may need to be near their children on their first day(s) of school and you will be welcome," Page wrote.
Don Emmert/AFP/Getty Images
Tragedy at Sandy Hook: The Search for Solutions Watch Video
Meteorites Stolen From Astronomical Research Institute Watch Video
The school is encouraging students to take the bus in order to help them return to familiar routines and said parents may come to the school's classrooms or auditorium throughout the day after the 9:07 a.m. opening. They are asking that no more than one adult family member accompany each child in order "to ensure a safe and secure environment."
In addition to a parental presence at the school, comfort dogs will be returning to brighten the day. Small armies of golden retrievers spread out all over Newtown in the days following the shooting to comfort mourners young and old.
Chicago's Lutheran Church Charities' K-9 Parish Comfort Dogs were in Newtown after the shooting and are traveling back to Connecticut today. Nine dogs and their handlers gathered at their building at 1 a.m. this morning to board a caravan of one RV and two vans heading to Connecticut.
"The community of Newtown will be going through the healing process for a very long time," the group wrote on their website. "The LCC K-9 Comfort dogs will be returning to Newtown...They will be there to greet children as they return to school."
The rest of the Newtown school district resumes classes on Wednesday.
Furniture and supplies from Sandy Hook were moved to Chalk Hill in order to recreate the classrooms just as they were.
Teachers photographed their classrooms at Sandy Hook in order to replicate everything about them, from the pictures on the walls to the crayons left on the students' desks. This is all part of an effort to make the students feel as comfortable as possible.
Workers completely retrofitted the former middle school to fit the needs of its young students, including tearing out bathrooms that were made for teenagers and rebuilding them for elementary-aged kids.
New security systems are being installed at Chalk Hill school, and Newtown Councilman Steve Vavrek told ABC News that the school will be "the safest school in America."
For a school that has gone through so much, moving forward does not mean forgetting.
"I want parents and families enduring the loss of their precious children to know their loved ones are foremost in our hearts and minds as we move forward," Page wrote. "Your strength and compassion has been, and will continue to be an inspiration to me and countless others as we work to honor the memory of your precious children and our beloved staff."
LONDON: Alex Ferguson has quashed retirement talk by revealing he has no plans to step down as Manchester United manager in the near future.
Ferguson, who turned 71 on Monday, has been forced to deal with questions about his retirement plans since the time he reversed his decision to leave the club in 2002.
With Pep Guardiola due to end his post-Barcelona sabbatical in a few months, Jose Mourinho tipped to leave Real Madrid and David Moyes' Everton contract close to expiring, three of the main candidates to replace Ferguson could be available at the end of the season, prompting a new round of speculation about the Scot's future.
But Ferguson, who has been in charge at Old Trafford since 1986, marked the new year by making it clear he won't be leaving United for some while.
"I'm hoping to stay on for a bit of time," he said in an interview with the Abu Dhabi Sports channel.
It is widely accepted few will get to know when Ferguson is ready to call it a day, with chief executive David Gill the man tasked with advising the Glazer family about a replacement.
And, though Guardiola, Mourinho and Moyes are bound to be at the top of the list if they are available, Ferguson knows plenty of other candidates are likely to have emerged by the time he finally quits.
"It's very difficult," Ferguson said. "Over the years, names have been bandied about but football is such a precarious industry.
"But you could be talking about one of the potentially exciting young managers in the game, but is he going to be here in two or three years' time?
"The sack race is horrendous. Sometimes a manager can only survive four games if he doesn't win a match.
"Top managers will always been in demand but nobody knows where they are going to be in two or three years' time."
(CNN) -- It's complex, dense, and filled with compromise. And the deal passed by the Senate to avert the "fiscal cliff" might not even become law, depending what actions the House takes.
Here are five things to know about the bill that passed the Senate overwhelmingly in the middle of the night.
1. No side won.
Republicans accepted higher taxes for the wealthiest Americans. Democrats accepted a higher threshold for who's wealthy enough to face a higher tax rate. President Obama broke a vow to raise tax rates on household income over $250,000 and individual income over $200,000. And that's just for starters. See more of what's in the bill here.
2. We may have a new definition of "wealthiest Americans."
President Obama made raising tax rates on the top 2% of earners in America a centerpiece of his re-election campaign. The 2% figure includes those with income over $250,000. The Senate compromise whittles that figure down. Tax rates will only go up for individuals with income over $400,000 and families earning more than $450,000.
The deal does, however, cap some deductions for individuals making $250,000 and for married couples making $300,000. That would allow the president bragging rights to say the deal raises taxes on people at those income levels. But he said just weeks ago that capping deductions at the $250,000 level would not be enough -- and that tax rates would rise.
3. The deal "kicks the can," and three more "fiscal cliffs" are looming.
The Senate deal does not address the sequester, a series of automatic cuts in federal spending. It delays the sequester for two months In the meantime, the Senate plan calls for $12 billion in new revenue and another $12 billion in spending cuts. The spending cuts are to be split between defense and nondefense spending.
So the deal adds another battle to this year's docket of apparently inevitable congressional squabbles over money. The other two: the debt ceiling and a continuing budget resolution.
4. If it doesn't pass
Because it's now 2013, the broad series of changes brought on by the fiscal cliff are in effect. Officially, the Bush-era tax cuts across income levels have ended. If no action is taken, most Americans will pay more in taxes this year. But the timing also offers Republicans an opportunity to say they are now voting to cut taxes, rather than voting to allow some tax cuts to expire.
The House faces a deadline. At noon on Thursday, a new Congress will be sworn in. If the House has not acted, both chambers will have to start from scratch.
5. Either way, your paycheck is likely to shrink
The Senate deal does not address an increase in payroll taxes. No legislation to address the fiscal cliff is expected to. Now, the cut on those taxes has expired. Americans earning $30,000 a year will take home $50 less per month. Those earning $113,700 will lose $189.50 a month.
Senators voted in the pre-dawn hours of New Year's Day to pass the long-sought agreement on the "fiscal cliff" and the House readies for its turn as soon as today, which, if the House passes it, would officially avert the tax hikes and spending cuts that technically took effect at midnight (the deal, when signed by the president, will make the new tax rates and spending retroactive to midnight).
Play Video
Biden advises not to predict outcome of "cliff" deal
How did the politicians involved get to their final agreement? Here's the rundown, according to officials familiar with the talks and with the White House's thinking:
Friday through Sunday: Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell's opening offer Friday night to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid was a $750,000 income tax threshold and no jobless benefits and no extension of the earned-income tax credit and other low-income tax breaks, means-testing Medicare, and the Bush era estate tax rates. Offers bounced back and forth Saturday and on Sunday, Reid opted out and handed talks over to Vice President Joe Biden (at McConnell's suggestion). President Obama, Reid and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi were in tandem through the talks. Delaying the federal spending cuts, or sequester, fell out of the talks on Sunday but McConnell came down to $550,000 in income tax threshold and some estate tax concessions reflected in the final deal.
Sunday, 8 p.m. ET: Mr. Obama and senior staff met in the Oval Office to discuss their final counter-offer to McConnell. The president set the $400K and $450K income threshold with one-year of jobless benefits and some delay of the sequester. Biden and McConnell talked through the night. Their last call was at 12:45 a.m.
After that, Mr. Obama and Biden met in the Oval until 2 a.m. to go over final details. Mr. Obama sent his legislative liaison Rob Nabors to Capitol Hill at 2 a.m. to begin drafting a bill with Senate Democrats. Biden and McConnell spoke again at 6:45 a.m. The rest of Monday was devoted to resolving the sequester impasse.
Monday, 9 p.m. ET: Biden and McConnell sealed the deal by telephone (Biden spoke to McConnell after clearing final details with Mr. Obama). The president then called Reid and Pelosi for one final OK and the deal was announced/leaked/confirmed.
The officials also pointed out that to get to the final deal, moving Republicans from a position of no tax increases in debt ceiling debate to tax increases through tax reform after Mr. Obama's re-election to nothing more than $1 million in higher rates and now to $400,000 and $450,000 thresholds is a significant policy and political victory (worth $620 billion over 10 years).
When the big deal talks failed before Christmas, Mr. Obama's biggest goal was to get GOP buy-in on higher tax rates for the wealthy. It is regarded as one of the most significant policy victories in two decades, the officials said.
Compromising on the two-month sequester was difficult, the officials added. The White House wanted a full year of waiving the sequester but there was no time to negotiate the difficult policy details (the sequester talks took literally all of Monday).
As for the deal's effect on the deficit, it does not cut the deficit relative to what would have occurred if all the fiscal cliff tax cuts had been erased (meaning all Bush tax cuts expired) and the sequester kicked in full force. But, relative to a baseline that assumes all existing tax policy would have continued, the deal raises $620 billion in revenue. The Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT) fix is not counted by the WH, for example, because its extension was assumed in the existing policy baseline (that doesn't mean it won't cost anything; just that the White House doesn't count the cost).
The jobless benefit extension for one year cost $30 billion and that is not paid for. The Medicare "doc fix" is paid for by savings that will be taken from other provider payouts in Medicare. It costs $31 billion, meaning those provider cuts will pay for protecting doctors from a 27 percent automatic cut in premiums.
And $12 billion in new revenue comes from allowing 401Ks and other retirement instruments into Roth IRAs. This is the revenue that forms half of the offset of the two-month sequester delay. The other $12 billion will come from a 50-50 split of non-defense and defense cuts.
Read more: "2013 Smart Guide: 10 ideas that will shape the year"
The first half of 2012 will be remembered for the saga over whether or not to publish controversial research involving versions of the H5N1 bird flu virus engineered to spread more easily in mammals. In the end openness won out, and both contentious studies did finally see the light of day.
This was also the year that saw the battle to eradicate polio reach its crucial endgame – just as another problem, in the form of totally drug resistant tuberculosis, reared its head.
Away from infectious disease, 2012 brought us a theory on the link between Tutankhamun, epilepsy and the first monotheistic religion, and an insight into the perils of premature ageing in Italy's ominously named Triangle of Death. Here are 10 more of the year's memorable stories.
Babies are born dirty, with a gutful of bacteria Far from being sterile, babies come complete with an army of bacteria. The finding could have implications for gut disorders and our health in general
Forensic failure: 'Miscarriages of justice will occur' Our survey of UK forensic scientists reveals that many are concerned that closure of the Forensic Science Service will lead to miscarriages of justice
Scandal of an underfunded and undertreated cancer Lung cancer in those who have never smoked is on the rise – but they face the same stigma as their smoking counterparts
Ovarian stem cells discovered in humans Stem cells capable of forming new eggs could promise limitless eggs for IVF treatments, and the rejuvenation of older eggs
Paralysis breakthrough: spinal cord damage repaired An implant helping paralysed people stand unaided suggests the spinal cord is able to recover function years after severe damage
A real fMRI high: My ecstasy brain scan Graham Lawton reports the highs, lows and psychedelic purple doors involved in taking MDMA while having his brain scanned
You may carry cells from siblings, aunts and uncles Male cells found in the umbilical cord blood of baby girls with older brothers suggests fetal cells cross between mother and baby more than once thought
Can we deter athletes who self-harm to win? The Paralympics may encourage a debate on a dangerous practice – and potential ways to prevent it
First non-hormonal male 'pill' prevents pregnancy A non-hormonal drug that temporarily reverses male fertility appears to have few side effects in mice
Mining MRSA genetic code halts superbug outbreak Whole genome sequencing of an MRSA outbreak has identified the person who unwittingly spread the bacteria around a hospital, stopping further infection
If you would like to reuse any content from New Scientist, either in print or online, please contact the syndication department first for permission. New Scientist does not own rights to photos, but there are a variety of licensing options available for use of articles and graphics we own the copyright to.
All comments should respect the New Scientist House Rules. If you think a particular comment breaks these rules then please use the "Report" link in that comment to report it to us.
If you are having a technical problem posting a comment, please contact technical support.
President Obama said an 11th-hour agreement to avert year-end tax hikes on 98 percent of Americans is "within sight" but not yet complete with just hours to go before the nation reaches the so-called fiscal cliff.
"There are still issues left to resolve but we're hopeful Congress can get it done," Obama said at a midday White House news conference. "But it's not done."
Congressional and White House negotiators have forged the contours of an agreement that would extend current tax rates for households making $450,000 or less; raise the estate tax from 35 to 40 percent for estates larger than $5 million; and prevent the Alternative Minimum Tax from hammering millions of middle-class workers, sources said.
The deal would also extend for one year unemployment insurance benefits set to expire Tuesday, and avert a steep cut to Medicare payments for doctors.
"I can report that we've reached an agreement on the all the tax issues," Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said in an afternoon speech on the Senate floor.
But Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., was among the less conciliatory Republicans. Rather than staging a "cheerleading rally," he said, the president should have been negotiating the finishing touches of the deal.
Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
'Fiscal Cliff': Lawmakers Scramble for Last-Minute Deal Watch Video
"What did the president of the United States just do? Well, he kind of made fun, he made a couple of jokes, laughed about how people are going to be here for New Year's, sent a message of confrontation to the Republicans," McCain said. "I guess I have to wonder, and I think the American people have to wonder whether the president really wants this issue resolved or is it to his short-term political benefit for us to go over the cliff?"
McCain said the president's speech today "clearly will antagonize members of the House," and "that's not the way presidents should lead."
Both sides remained at odds on what to do about the other significant piece of the "fiscal cliff" -- the more than $1 trillion of automatic cuts to defense and domestic programs set to begin tomorrow.
The White House has proposed a three-month delay of the cuts to allow more time to hash out details for deficit reduction, while many Senate Democrats want a flat one-year delay. Republicans insist that some spending cuts should be implemented now as part of any deal.
"In order to get the sequester moved, you're going to have to have real, concrete spending cuts," Rep. Mike Rogers, R-Mich., said. "[Without that], I don't know how it passes the House."
Vice President Joe Biden and McConnell, R-Ky., have been locked in behind-the-scenes negotiations for much of the day, sources said, following several "good" conversations that stretched late into Sunday night.
"We are very, very close," McConnell said today. "We can do this. We must do this."
If a deal is reached between Biden and McConnell, members in both chambers would still need to review it and vote on it later today. Passage is far from guaranteed.
"This is one Democrat that doesn't agree with that at all," Iowa Democratic Sen. Tom Harkin said of the tentative deal. "No deal is better than a bad deal, and this looks like a very bad deal the way this is shaping up."
"I don't see how you get something voted on today," Rogers said. "Even if they get a handshake deal today, you have to put the whole thing together and that's probably not going to happen before midnight. So it would make sense to roll into tomorrow to do that."
NEW YORK: Oil prices surged higher on Monday after US politicians signaled a last-minute compromise deal was in view to avert driving the economy over a fiscal cliff toward recession.
New York's main contract, light sweet crude for delivery in February, gained $1.02 from Friday to close at $91.82 a barrel.
Brent North Sea crude for February settled at $111.11 a barrel, up 49 cents.
Over the year, New York's West Texas Intermediate fell 7 percent from the last day of trade in 2011, while Brent rose 3 percent.
Oil prices earlier had been under pressure amid US political deadlock on a bipartisan deficit reduction deal that would avoid the cliff of automatic sharp tax hikes and spending cuts due to begin taking effect at midnight.
Oil prices surged after President Barack Obama, in a nationally televised statement from the White House, said an agreement to prevent the tax hike is "within sight."
"The market experienced significant volatility during Obama's comments on fiscal negotiations and ended up closing near today's highs," BMO Capital Markets analysts wrote in a market note.
"People are getting optimistic about the fiscal cliff," said Michael Lynch of Strategic Energy and Economic Research.
"They feel that if even it is not done tonight it will be done in the next day or so, so that there won't be any serious negative impact on the economy."
Lynch said that positive news in China, the world's biggest energy consumer and driver of global growth, also was making the oil market bullish.
China's manufacturing activity surged to a 19-month high in December, British bank HSBC said Monday, a further sign of stronger growth in the world's second-largest economy.
HSBC's purchasing managers' index (PMI) rose to 51.5, up from 50.5 in November, the first month of growth after a solid year of contraction.
NEW: House GOP sources say they're unlikely to vote on any deal until Tuesday
Deal to avert "fiscal cliff" is "within sight," President Barack Obama says
Possible agreement calls for increase in income, estate taxes
The fiscal cliff triggers broad tax increases and an automatic $110 billion in spending cuts
As the fiscal cliff looms, what's your New Year's message to Washington? Go to CNN iReport to share your video.
(CNN) -- An agreement to avert the "fiscal cliff" of automatic tax increases and spending cuts appears to be "within sight," President Barack Obama said Monday.
The deal would prevent a tax increase for the overwhelming majority of Americans, extend the child tax and tuition credits for families as well as those for clean-energy companies and extend unemployment benefits for two million people, Obama said.
"There are still issues left to resolve, but we are hopeful Congress can get it done," Obama said.
Nevertheless, he did not sound hopeful a deal was imminent, saying he expected to remain at the White House for New Year's Eve while lawmakers used up every last second available to them.
"Keep the pressure on over the next 12 hours or so," he urged supporters. "Let's see if we can get this thing done."
Latest updates: Final fiscal cliff scramble
A GOP source told CNN negotiators are "very close" to a deal. The sticking point is $24 billion in spending cuts being sought by Republicans in place of deeper cuts that would automatically take effect at midnight,according to the source.
"It's like looking under the cushions at this point," the source said. "If we can't find that at this point, we should pack this place up."
A congressional Democratic source agreed that spending cuts are the main hold up now.
But House GOP sources told CNN that they think it increasingly unlikely they'll vote on the proposal before Tuesday.
There's little practical difference in settling the issue Monday night versus Tuesday, the sources said. One exception: if House Republicans approve the bill on Tuesday -- when taxes have technically gone up -- they can argue they've voted for a tax cut to bring rates back down, even after just a few hours, GOP sources said.
That could bring some more Republicans on board, one source said.
"I wouldn't overestimate it, but a handful may be the difference we need," the source said.
Read more: Why your paycheck is getting smaller, no matter what
The proposal under discussion Monday afternoon called for rolling back tax rates on the highest-income earners to Clinton-era levels, increasing the estate tax rate, extending unemployment benefits and potentially putting off the $110 billion in automatic spending cuts called for in the legislation that created the cliff, according to sources close to the process.
A source familiar with the negotiations said the proposal under discussion would generate $600 billion in revenues by ending the Bush-era tax cuts on individuals with incomes above $400,000 and families over $450,000. Their tax rate would be 39.6%, the same as it was in 2000 during President Bill Clinton's presidency. The top income rate is currently 35%.
The deal would also increase the estate tax to 40% from the current 35% level and cap itemized deductions for individuals with incomes above $250,000 and household income over $300,000, the source said.
Read more: What if there's no deal on fiscal cliff
In addition to the tax proposals, also under discussion is a proposal to delay the $110 billion in automatic cuts in domestic and military spending due over the next nine months, a draconian approach called sequester that was created by Congress to address the impact of high deficits and debt on the U.S. economy.
Republicans want a three-month delay while Democrats seek to forestall the cuts by one year, a Democratic source told CNN. Another Democratic source said the proposed three-month delay "can't pass."
Despite Obama's backing, one leading Senate Democrat warned the deal could run into trouble -- not only from House Republicans who have long opposed any tax increase, but also from liberals in the Senate who oppose allowing more high-income households to escape a tax increase.
"No deal is better than a bad deal, and this looks like a very bad deal the way this is shaping up," Sen. Tom Harkin, D-Iowa, said.
Read more: Medicare patients may suffer if country goes over fiscal cliff
If nothing gets done before Monday at midnight, broad taxes hikes will kick in as the Bush-era cuts expire and the deep spending cuts will begin to take hold.
The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office has predicted the combined effect could dampen economic growth by 0.5%, possibly tipping the U.S. economy into a recession and driving unemployment from its current 7.7% back over 9%.
Graham on fiscal cliff: Obama wins 'hollow' political victory
CNN's Matt Smith, Jessica Yellin, Dana Bash, Deirdre Walsh, Lisa Desjardins, Ted Barrett and Ashley Killough contributed to this report.
LAKE FOREST, Ill. The Chicago Bears fired coach Lovie Smith on Monday after the team missed the playoffs for the fifth time in six seasons.
Smith was informed of the decision by general manager Phil Emery on the day after the Bears beat Detroit to finish 10-6 but still didn't make the playoffs.
10 Photos
NFL coaches, GMs sacked in firing frenzy
Smith led the Bears to a Super Bowl, but also saw his team collapse in the second half of the past two seasons. Hired in 2004, Smith led the Bears to three division titles, two NFC title games and a 2007 Super Bowl appearance in his nine seasons. His record is 81-63, and he leaves with one year left on his contract.
The Bears scheduled a news conference Tuesday to discuss the move.
Even though Chicago closed with a win, the Bears needed a loss by Minnesota to get into the playoffs. The Vikings, though, beat Green Bay to clinch a postseason spot, leaving Chicago as the second team since the postseason expanded to 12 teams to miss out after a 7-1 start. The other was Washington in 1996.
CBS Sports NFL Insider Jason La Canfora reported Sunday that Smith's tenuous hold on his job "would be further imperiled should his team fail to get into the postseason."
But Smith, who had one year remaining on his current deal, shouldn't have any trouble finding work. League sources told La Canfora that Smith should land head-coaching interviews with other NFL teams.
Smith's record ranks third on the Bears' all-time list, behind George Halas and Mike Ditka.
The highlight of his tenure was the run to the title game that ended with a loss to the Indianapolis Colts. It was the first time two black coaches met for the championship, with Smith going against his mentor Tony Dungy.
The Bears made the playoffs just three times and posted three postseason victories under Smith. The 2010 team beat Seattle after the Seahawks won their division with a 7-9 record, but the Bears lost to Green Bay in the NFC title game at Soldier Field.
There was speculation Smith would be let go following the 2011 team's collapse, but he got one more year while general manager Jerry Angelo was fired.
Ultimately, the struggles on offense did him in.
Known for solid defenses, Smith oversaw a unit that was consistently effective and at times ranked among the league's best with stars such as Brian Urlacher, Lance Briggs and later Julius Peppers. Smith emphasized taking the ball away from the opposition, and no team did it more than the Bears with 310 during his tenure.
But on the other side, it was a different story.
Smith went through four offensive coordinators in Terry Shea, Ron Turner, Mike Martz and Mike Tice. He never could find the right formula, even as the Bears acquired stars such as quarterback Jay Cutler and receiver Brandon Marshall over the years.
The offensive line has struggled in a big way over the past few seasons after age took its toll on a group that was a strength during the 2005 and 2006 playoff seasons. The Bears were never able to replenish, spending first-round picks on Chris Williams (2008) and Gabe Carimi (2011) that did not pan out.
Williams had his contract terminated in October, ending a disappointing run, and Carimi struggled this season after missing most of his rookie year with a knee injury.
While Angelo took the fall after last season, Smith was not without blame in the personnel issues over the years. He pushed to bring in former Rams offensive lineman Orlando Pace and safety Adam Archuleta, players who succeeded in St. Louis when Smith was the defensive coordinator there but were busts with the Bears.
He had no bigger supporter than team matriarch Virginia McCaskey, but the fans seemed split on him. To some, he was a picture of calm, a coach who never lost his composure and never criticized his players in public, the anti-Ditka if you will.
History suggests fans who are clamoring for a high-profile replacement such as Bill Cowher or Jon Gruden might be disappointed. The last time the Bears went with an experienced NFL head coach was when Halas returned to the sideline in 1958.
They might, however, go with an offensive-minded coach for the first time since Mike Ditka was fired after the 1992 season, given the issues in that area.
That the Bears would be in this spot seemed unthinkable after they ripped Tennessee 51-20 on Nov. 4. They were sailing along at 7-1 and eyeing a big playoff run after collapsing the previous season, with the defense taking the ball away and scoring at an eye-opening rate to compensate for a struggling offense, but the schedule took a tougher turn.
They dropped back-to-back games to Houston and San Francisco and five of six in all before closing out with wins at Arizona and Detroit. Injuries mounted along the way, and what looked like a playoff run slipped from their grasp, just as it did after a promising start in 2011.
That year, they won seven of their first 10 only to wind up at 8-8 after a monumental collapse sparked by a season-ending injury to Cutler.
While Angelo was fired, Smith got spared and Emery took the job with a mandate to keep the coach at least one more year.
He quickly went to work retooling the roster, landing Marshall in a blockbuster trade with Miami that reunited Cutler with his favorite target in Denver.
He also added depth in other areas, bringing in Jason Campbell as the backup quarterback after Caleb Hanie failed the previous season and teaming running back Michael Bush in the backfield with Matt Forte.
All those moves sent expectations soaring. The results were awfully familiar, though.
