Showing posts with label World. Show all posts
Showing posts with label World. Show all posts

2013 Smart Guide: More people than ever 'mentally ill'



































Read more: "2013 Smart Guide: 10 ideas that will shape the year"












Mental illness could strike more of us in 2013 than ever before. But don't blame the strain of modern living: changes to diagnostic guidelines mean unprecedented numbers of people could be taking psychoactive drugs.











In May, the American Psychiatric Association will publish the latest edition of its diagnostic manual, known as DSM-5. Changes to the text approved in December mean, for example, that some people grieving after a bereavement could soon be diagnosed with depression. And Asperger's syndrome is to be subsumed into autism spectrum disorder.













That change is likely to decrease the number of children diagnosed with some form of autism, because not all those who might have been diagnosed with Asperger's would meet autism criteria. But overall, critics fear an expansion of the boundaries of mental illness. "The phrase I use is the 'sickening of society'," says Frank Farley of Temple University in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, one of the organisers of a petition that tried unsuccessfully to open DSM-5 up to wider scientific review.












Some 20 per cent of US citizens have experienced a diagnosable mental illness in the past year. How this figure will now change is unclear - for the most part the implications for rates of diagnosis haven't been studied.











Allen Frances of Duke University in Durham, North Carolina, led the last DSM revision in 1994 and has been a fierce critic of DSM-5. He fears drug companies will scent a marketing opportunity. Already, he says, "antipsychotics are being giving out like candy".





















































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2013 Smart Guide: Arctic melt will spark weird weather









































Read more: "2013 Smart Guide: 10 ideas that will shape the year"












Melting, rather than warming, is likely to be the big climate issue of 2013.












Predictions that a major El NiƱo warming event - and the coming solar maximum - would help make next year the warmest on record now seem wide of the mark. All eyes will probably be on the Arctic instead. Some say the record loss of sea ice in summer 2012 was a one-off, others that it was the start of a runaway collapse. If the latter, summer sea ice could virtually disappear as early as 2016. What is certain is that the ice reforming now will be the thinnest on record, priming it for destruction next summer.

















A new record melt would allow scary satellite images of an even bluer Arctic to coincide with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's next assessment, due in September (though a draft has been leaked - see "What leaked IPCC report really says on climate change"). Such pictures will be a sombre backdrop as the IPCC raises its previously cautious estimates of future polar melting and the speed of sea-level rise.












With warming of at least 2 °C now unstoppable, politicians at the recent Doha climate talks spent much time discussing how to adapt. What they need is predictions for individual countries. But the IPCC will admit that it still cannot say whether many regions will get wetter or drier. And it will quietly bury its confident predictions, made in 2007, of more frequent droughts, which turned out to rest largely on flawed analyses.













There is growing uncertainty, too, about the outlook for the northern hemisphere. Research in 2012 implicated the fast-warming Arctic in a slowing of the jet stream. This is bringing extreme weather to mid-latitudes, including prolonged cold spells in Europe, Russia's 2010 heatwave, and record droughts in the US in 2011 and 2012. Watch out for more weird weather in 2013.




















































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2012 review: The year in health science









































Read more: "2013 Smart Guide: 10 ideas that will shape the year"











The first half of 2012 will be remembered for the saga over whether or not to publish controversial research involving versions of the H5N1 bird flu virus engineered to spread more easily in mammals. In the end openness won out, and both contentious studies did finally see the light of day.












This was also the year that saw the battle to eradicate polio reach its crucial endgame – just as another problem, in the form of totally drug resistant tuberculosis, reared its head.












Away from infectious disease, 2012 brought us a theory on the link between Tutankhamun, epilepsy and the first monotheistic religion, and an insight into the perils of premature ageing in Italy's ominously named Triangle of Death. Here are 10 more of the year's memorable stories.












Babies are born dirty, with a gutful of bacteria
Far from being sterile, babies come complete with an army of bacteria. The finding could have implications for gut disorders and our health in general












Forensic failure: 'Miscarriages of justice will occur'
Our survey of UK forensic scientists reveals that many are concerned that closure of the Forensic Science Service will lead to miscarriages of justice












Scandal of an underfunded and undertreated cancer
Lung cancer in those who have never smoked is on the rise – but they face the same stigma as their smoking counterparts












Ovarian stem cells discovered in humans
Stem cells capable of forming new eggs could promise limitless eggs for IVF treatments, and the rejuvenation of older eggs












Paralysis breakthrough: spinal cord damage repaired
An implant helping paralysed people stand unaided suggests the spinal cord is able to recover function years after severe damage












A real fMRI high: My ecstasy brain scan
Graham Lawton reports the highs, lows and psychedelic purple doors involved in taking MDMA while having his brain scanned












You may carry cells from siblings, aunts and uncles
Male cells found in the umbilical cord blood of baby girls with older brothers suggests fetal cells cross between mother and baby more than once thought












Can we deter athletes who self-harm to win?
The Paralympics may encourage a debate on a dangerous practice – and potential ways to prevent it












First non-hormonal male 'pill' prevents pregnancy
A non-hormonal drug that temporarily reverses male fertility appears to have few side effects in mice












Mining MRSA genetic code halts superbug outbreak
Whole genome sequencing of an MRSA outbreak has identified the person who unwittingly spread the bacteria around a hospital, stopping further infection

















































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2013 Smart Guide: Curiosity to reach Mars mother lode









































Read more: "2013 Smart Guide: 10 ideas that will shape the year"











NASA'S Curiosity rover is about to have its cake and eat it too. Around September, the rover should get its first taste of layered sediments at Aeolis Mons, a mountain over 5 kilometres tall that may hold preserved signs of life on Mars.












Previous rovers uncovered ample evidence of ancient water, a key ingredient for life as we know it. With its sophisticated on-board chemistry lab, Curiosity is hunting for more robust signs of habitability, including organic compounds - the carbon-based building blocks of life as we know it.













Observations from orbit show that the layers in Aeolis Mons - also called Mount Sharp - contain minerals thought to have formed in the presence of water. That fits with theories that the rover's landing site, Gale crater, was once a large lake. Even better, the layers were probably laid down quickly enough that the rocks could have held on to traces of microorganisms, if they existed there.


















If the search for organics turns up empty, Aeolis Mons may hold other clues to habitability, says project scientist John Grotzinger of the California Institute of Technology in Pasadena. The layers will reveal which minerals and chemical processes were present in Mars's past. "We're going to find all kinds of good stuff down there, I'm sure," he says.











Curiosity will explore a region called Glenelg until early February, and then hit the gas. The base of the mountain is 10 kilometres away, and the rover can drive at about 100 metres a day at full speed. The journey should take between six and nine months, but will include stops to check out any interesting landmarks. After all, some of the most exciting discoveries from Mars rovers were a result of serendipity.













"It's a discovery-driven mission," Grotzinger says. "We picked this site because we wanted to go to Mount Sharp. But we'll kind of follow our nose, and see where it leads us off on side trails."




















































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Today on New Scientist: 28 December 2012







Best videos of 2012: Rare view of Challenger tragedy

Watch a rare amateur video of the Challenger explosion, our most-viewed video of the year



Strong jet stream super-charged US Christmas storms

Record snowfall and dozens of tornadoes snarled holiday travel as a powerful winter storm plowed across much of the US, while rainstorms battered the UK



2012 review: The year in life science

The year's biggest stories in life science, including James Cameron's descent into the Mariana trench and efforts to break into Antarctica's buried lakes



Superstorm lessons for adapting to climate change

As the post-Sandy rebuild gets under way, coastal cities around the world will be watching



Best videos of 2012: First MRI movie of childbirth

Watch a unique view of a baby's birth, at number 2 in our countdown of the year's top science videos



Fleadom or death: Reviving the glorious flea circus

The parasite-based sideshows were almost done for by the domestic vacuum cleaner - but they are bouncing back, finds Graham Lawton



Approval for gene-modified salmon spawns controversy

Apparently months late, US regulators have declared genetically engineered fish safe to farm and eat, but final approval could be some way off



Best videos of 2012: New aircraft flies inside out

Watch a novel flying machine use a unique mechanism to propel itself, at number 3 in our countdown of the top videos of the year



2012 review: The year in technology

The year's biggest stories in technology, including Kinect devices that may spot signs of autism and controlling a robot by the power of thought



Superdoodles: The science of scribbling

Far from being a distraction, doodling has an important purpose - and you can harness it



2013 Smart Guide: Wave goodbye to the mouse

The Leap, a 3D motion control device set to launch next year, will let you control your computer with touch-free hand and finger movements





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Today on New Scientist: 28 December 2012







Best videos of 2012: Rare view of Challenger tragedy

Watch a rare amateur video of the Challenger explosion, our most-viewed video of the year



Strong jet stream super-charged US Christmas storms

Record snowfall and dozens of tornadoes snarled holiday travel as a powerful winter storm plowed across much of the US, while rainstorms battered the UK



2012 review: The year in life science

The year's biggest stories in life science, including James Cameron's descent into the Mariana trench and efforts to break into Antarctica's buried lakes



Superstorm lessons for adapting to climate change

As the post-Sandy rebuild gets under way, coastal cities around the world will be watching



Best videos of 2012: First MRI movie of childbirth

Watch a unique view of a baby's birth, at number 2 in our countdown of the year's top science videos



Fleadom or death: Reviving the glorious flea circus

The parasite-based sideshows were almost done for by the domestic vacuum cleaner - but they are bouncing back, finds Graham Lawton



Approval for gene-modified salmon spawns controversy

Apparently months late, US regulators have declared genetically engineered fish safe to farm and eat, but final approval could be some way off



Best videos of 2012: New aircraft flies inside out

Watch a novel flying machine use a unique mechanism to propel itself, at number 3 in our countdown of the top videos of the year



2012 review: The year in technology

The year's biggest stories in technology, including Kinect devices that may spot signs of autism and controlling a robot by the power of thought



Superdoodles: The science of scribbling

Far from being a distraction, doodling has an important purpose - and you can harness it



2013 Smart Guide: Wave goodbye to the mouse

The Leap, a 3D motion control device set to launch next year, will let you control your computer with touch-free hand and finger movements





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Superdoodles: The science of scribbling


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2013 Smart Guide: Next-generation video games









































Read more: "2013 Smart Guide: 10 ideas that will shape the year"












Bigger, better and far more immersive. With Nintendo's launch of the Wii U in November and Microsoft and Sony both expected to pitch in with successors to the Xbox 360 and PS3 in time for next Christmas, 2013 will be a huge year for console gaming.












Leaked details have sparked excited chatter about 3D gaming in 1080p HD and Ultra HD (which has four times the pixels of 1080p), and augmented-reality play in your living room. Nintendo, which was the first to introduce motion-controlled gaming last time round, has continued its pioneering streak and brought us two-screen play, by adding a touchscreen to its control pads.












The gaming field is getting crowded. Since the launch of the last generation of consoles in 2005-2006, games have begun streaming from the cloud, coming to TVs directly from PCs, even become available through a crowd-funded Android console.












Given the eclectic competition, it's no wonder the next crop of heavyweights are embracing novel designs. The idea of the Wii U's controller screen is to clear the TV screen of user-interface clutter and introduce multiplayer possibilities. Players in the room have different perspectives on the action depending on what is displayed on their controller, for example.












Sony and Microsoft are also embracing two-screen concepts. The next PlayStation will probably enhance its connection to the PS Vita, its portable cousin, allowing you to play a game on the move and then swap to the main console when you're home. Similarly, the next Xbox is expected to make Smartglass - an app that lets you control the console from a smartphone - more of a centrepiece.












If additional screens and eye-popping pixel counts aren't enough, perhaps we'll move beyond screens. Microsoft has filed a patent for projecting augmented-reality 3D images onto your living room walls. If that pans out, game worlds will burst out of the TV and into your home, with Kinect - or its successor - letting you control the action with simple gestures. Two screens might seem rather quaint when your whole living room is the control pad.


























































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2013 Smart Guide: Hot computing for a cool billion



































Read more: "2013 Smart Guide: 10 ideas that will shape the year"












It has been called science's X Factor: six mega-projects vying for two prizes, each worth a cool €1 billion.












In 2010, the European Commission put out a call for visionary computing initiatives comparable to the moon landing or the mapping of the human genome. Such ultra-ambitious projects would change the way we think about the world and ideally solve some of its problems, too.











Of 21 ideas submitted, six were shortlisted for further development. These include the Human Brain Project - an attempt to simulate the brain using a supercomputer - and a scheme to create a new generation of electronic devices based not on silicon but graphene.













The winners will be announced at the end of January. The prize money, from European countries and private firms as well as the European Union, will be spread over 10 years.












Our money is on FuturICT, a real-life SimCity on a global scale. It will give individuals, companies and governments real-time information about the planet, and run simulations to find the best strategies for dealing with issues such as climate change.











FuturICT was conceived after the 2008 financial crash drove home our lack of understanding about today's hyperconnected world. The civilisation simulator will be an open platform, accepting data on anything from social media and the stock exchange to climate models and political preferences. Stay tuned for the start of something big.





















































If you would like to reuse any content from New Scientist, either in print or online, please contact the syndication department first for permission. New Scientist does not own rights to photos, but there are a variety of licensing options available for use of articles and graphics we own the copyright to.




































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New Scientist 2012 holiday quiz

















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THIS was the year we held our breath in almost unbearable anticipation while we waited to see whether physicists at the Large Hadron Collider would finally get a clear view of the Higgs boson, so tantalisingly hinted at last December. Going a bit blue, we held on through March when one of the LHC's detectors seemed to lose sight of the thing, before exhaling in a puff of almost-resolution in July, when researchers announced that the data added up to a fairly confident pretty-much-actual-discovery of the particle.












Early indications were that it might be a weird and wonderful variety of the Higgs, prompting a collective gasp of excitement. That was followed by a synchronised sigh of mild disappointment when later data implied that it was probably the most boring possible version after all, and not a strange entity pointing the way to new dimensions and the true nature of dark matter. Prepare yourself for another puff or two as the big story moves on next year.













This respirational rollercoaster might be running a bit too slowly to supply enough oxygen to the brain of a New Scientist reader, so we have taken care to provide more frequent oohs and aahs using less momentous revelations. See how many of the following unfundamental discoveries you can distinguish from the truth-free mimics that crowd parasitically around them.












1. Which of these anatomical incongruities of the animal kingdom did we describe on 14 July?












  • a) A fish, found in a canal in Vietnam, that wears its genitals under its mouth
  • b) A frog, found in a puddle in Peru, that has no spleen
  • c) A lizard, found in a cave in Indonesia, that has four left feet
  • d) A cat, found in a tree in northern England, that has eight extra teeth

2. "A sprout by any other name would taste as foul." So wrote William Shakespeare in his diary on 25 December 1598, setting off the centuries of slightly unjust ridicule experienced by this routinely over-cooked vegetable. But which forbiddingly named veg did we report on 7 July as having more health-giving power than the sprout, its active ingredient being trialled as a treatment for prostate cancer?












  • a) Poison celery
  • b) Murder beans
  • c) Inconvenience potatoes
  • d) Death carrots

3. Scientists often like to say they are opening a new window on things. Usually that is a metaphor, but on 10 November we reported on a more literal innovation in the fenestral realm. It was:












  • a) A perspex peephole set in the nest of the fearsome Japanese giant hornet, to reveal its domestic habits
  • b) A glass porthole implanted in the abdomen of a mouse, to reveal the process of tumour metastasis
  • c) A crystal portal in the inner vessel of an experimental thorium reactor, to reveal its nuclear fires to the naked eye
  • d) A small window high on the wall of a basement office in the Princeton physics department, to reveal a small patch of sky to postgraduate students who have not been outside for seven years

4. On 10 March we described a new material for violin strings, said to produce a brilliant and complex sound richer than that of catgut. What makes up these super strings?












  • a) Mousegut
  • b) Spider silk
  • c) Braided carbon nanotubes
  • d) An alloy of yttrium and ytterbium

5. While the peril of climate change looms inexorably larger, in this festive-for-some season we might take a minute to look on the bright side. On 17 March we reported on one benefit of global warming, which might make life better for some people for a while. It was:












  • a) Receding Arctic sea ice will make it easier to lay undersea cables to boost internet speeds
  • b) Increasing temperatures mean that Greenlanders can soon start making their own wine
  • c) Rising sea levels could allow a string of new beach resorts to open in the impoverished country of Chad
  • d) More acidic seawater will add a pleasant tang to the salt water taffy sweets made in Atlantic City

6. In Alaska's Glacier Bay national park, the brown bear in the photo (above, right) is doing something never before witnessed among bearkind, as we revealed on 10 March. Is it:












  • a) Making a phonecall?
  • b) Gnawing at a piece of whalebone to dislodge a rotten tooth?
  • c) Scratching itself with a barnacle-covered stone tool?
  • d) Cracking oysters on its jaw?

7. Men have much in common with fruit flies, as we revealed on 24 March. When the sexual advances of a male fruit fly are rejected, he may respond by:












  • a) Whining
  • b) Hitting the booze
  • c) Jumping off a tall building
  • d) Hovering around the choosy female long after all hope is lost

8. While great Higgsian things were happening at the LHC, scientists puzzled over a newly urgent question: what should we call the boson? Peter Higgs wasn't the only physicist to predict its existence, and some have suggested that the particle's name should also include those other theorists or perhaps reflect some other aspect of the particle. Which of the following is a real suggestion that we reported on 24 March?

























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How does a traffic cop ticket a driverless car?






















Rapid progress means self-driving cars are in the fast lane to consumer reality. Is the law up to speed too, asks legal expert Bryant Walker Smith






















EVER since the 1930s, self-driving cars have been just 20 years away. Many of those earlier visions, however, depended on changes to physical infrastructure that never came about - like special roads embedded with magnets.












Fast forward to today, and many of the modern concepts for such vehicles are intended to work with existing technologies. These supercomputers-on-wheels use a variety of onboard sensors - and, in some cases, stored maps or communications from other vehicles - to assist or even replace human drivers under specific conditions. And they have the potential to adapt to changes in existing infrastructure rather than requiring it to alter for them.












Infrastructure, however, is more than just roads, pavements, signs and signals. In a broad sense, it also includes the laws that govern motor vehicles: driver licensing requirements, rules of the road and principles of product liability, to name but a few. One major question remains though. Will tomorrow's cars and trucks have to adapt to today's legal infrastructure, or will that infrastructure adapt to them?












Consider the most basic question: are self-driving vehicles legal today? For the US, the short answer is that they probably can be (the long answer runs to nearly 100 pages). Granted, such vehicles must have drivers, and drivers must be able to control their vehicles - these are international requirements that date back to 1926, when horses and cattle were far more likely to be "driverless" than cars. Regardless, these rules, and many others that assume a human presence, do not necessarily prohibit vehicles from steering, braking and accelerating by themselves. Indeed, three US states - Nevada, Florida and most recently California - have passed laws to make that conclusion explicit, at least to a point.












Still unclear, even with these early adopters, is the precise responsibility of the human user, assuming one exists. Must the "driver" remain vigilant, their hands on the wheel and their eyes on the road? If not, what are they allowed to do inside, or outside, the vehicle? Under Nevada law, the person who tells a self-driving vehicle to drive becomes its driver. Unlike the driver of an ordinary vehicle, that person may send text messages. However, they may not "drive" drunk - even if sitting in a bar while the car is self-parking. Broadening the practical and economic appeal of self-driving vehicles may require releasing their human users from many of the current legal duties of driving.












For now, however, the appropriate role of a self-driving vehicle's human operator is not merely a legal question; it is also a technical one. At least at normal speeds, early generations of such vehicles are likely to be joint human-computer systems; the computer may be able to direct the vehicle on certain kinds of roads in certain kinds of traffic and weather, but its human partner may need to be ready to take over in some situations, such as unexpected road works.












A great deal of research will be done on how these transitions should be managed. Consider, for example, how much time you would need to stop reading this article, look up at the road, figure out where you are and resume steering and braking. And consider how far your car would travel in that time. (Note: do not attempt this while driving your own car.)












Technical questions like this mean it will be a while before your children are delivered to school by taxis automatically dispatched and driven by computers, or your latest online purchases arrive in a driver-less delivery truck. That also means we have time to figure out some of the truly futuristic legal questions: How do you ticket a robot? Who should pay? And can it play (or drive) by different rules of the road?


















Data protection is a more pressing issue. Many cars and trucks available today already collect driving data through onboard sensors, computers and cellular devices. But imagine taking a dozen smartphones, turning on all of their sensors and cameras, linking them to your social media accounts, and affixing them to the inside and outside of your vehicle. That is an understatement of a self-driving vehicle's potential data collection. Because consumer versions of such vehicles do not yet exist, we don't know what data will actually be collected or how it will be transmitted and used. However, legal issues related to disclosure, consent and ownership will mix with important policy questions about the costs and benefits of data sharing. Indeed, some research vehicles in Germany already have privacy notices printed on their sides to warn other road users.












Finally, what happens when things go wrong - or at least not as right as they might? Given that the vast majority of crashes are caused at least in part by human error, self-driving vehicles have huge potential to save lives. But they will not be perfect; after all, humans will remain in the design loop even after they are out of the driving loop. To what standard, then, should these vehicles be held? Must they perform as well as a perfect human driver for any conceivable manoeuvre? Or must they perform merely as well as an average human in a statistical sense? In any case, how should that performance be measured?












These questions will be considered explicitly or implicitly by the regulators who create new standards, the judges and juries that decide who should pay for injuries, and how much, and the consumers who decide what kind of car to buy. The uncertainty that surrounds the answers will affect the speed and price at which these new technologies are introduced.












Why do these questions matter so much? Because ultimately their most meaningful answers will, one hopes, be expressed in terms of lives saved.




















Bryant Walker Smith is a fellow at the Center for Internet and Society at Stanford Law School and the Center for Automotive Research at Stanford University, California. His analysis of the legality of self-driving vehicles in the US came out in November (bit.ly/SVCe32)



































If you would like to reuse any content from New Scientist, either in print or online, please contact the syndication department first for permission. New Scientist does not own rights to photos, but there are a variety of licensing options available for use of articles and graphics we own the copyright to.




































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Today on New Scientist: 21 December 2012







Cadaver stem cells offer new hope of life after death

Stem cells can be extracted from bone marrow five days after death to be used in life-saving treatments



Apple's patents under fire at US patent office

The tech firm is skating on thin ice with some of the patents that won it a $1 billion settlement against Samsung



Himalayan dam-building threatens endemic species

The world's highest mountains look set to become home to a huge number of dams - good news for clean energy but bad news for biodiversity



Astrophile: Black hole exposed as a dwarf in disguise

A white dwarf star caught mimicking a black hole's X-ray flashes may be the first in a new class of binary star systems



Blind juggling robot keeps a ball in the air for hours

The robot, which has no visual sensors, can juggle a ball flawlessly by analysing its trajectory



Studio sessions show how Bengalese finch stays in tune

This songbird doesn't need technological aids to stay in tune - and it's smart enough to not worry when it hears notes that are too far off to be true



Giant tooth hints at truly monumental dinosaur

A lone tooth found in Argentina may have belonged to a dinosaur even larger than those we know of, but what to call it?



Avian flu virus learns to fly without wings

A strain of bird flu that hit the Netherlands in 2003 travelled by air, a hitherto suspected by unproven route of transmission



Feedback: Are wind turbines really fans?

A tale of "disease-spreading" wind farms, the trouble with quantifying "don't know", the death of parody in the UK, and more



The link between devaluing animals and discrimination

Our feelings about other animals have important consequences for how we treat humans, say prejudice researchers Gordon Hodson and Kimberly Costello



Best videos of 2012: First motion MRI of unborn twins

Watch twins fight for space in the womb, as we reach number 6 in our countdown of the top videos of the year



2012 Flash Fiction winner: Sleep by Richard Clarke

Congratulations to Richard Clarke, who won the 2012 New Scientist Flash Fiction competition with a clever work of satire



Urban Byzantine monks gave in to temptation

They were supposed to live on an ascetic diet of mainly bread and water, but the monks in 6th-century Jerusalem were tucking into animal products



The pregnant promise of fetal medicine

As prenatal diagnosis and treatment advance, we are entering difficult ethical territory



2013 Smart Guide: Searching for human origins in Asia

Africa is where humanity began, where we took our first steps, but those interested in the latest cool stuff on our origins should now look to Asia instead



The end of the world is an opportunity, not a threat

Don't waste time bemoaning the demise of the old order; get on with building the new one



Victorian counting device gets speedy quantum makeover

A photon-based version of a 19th-century mechanical device could bring quantum computers a step closer



Did learning to fly give bats super-immunity?

When bats first took to the air, something changed in their DNA which may have triggered their incredible immunity to viruses



Van-sized space rock is a cosmic oddball

Fragments from a meteor that exploded over California in April are unusually low in amino acids, putting a twist on one theory of how life on Earth began




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2013 Smart Guide: Searching for human origins in Asia









































Read more: "2013 Smart Guide: 10 ideas that will shape the year"












Move over Africa. It is where humanity began, where we took our first steps and grew big brains. But those interested in the latest cool stuff on the origins of our species should look to Asia instead.












Why so? It looks as if some early chapters in the human story, and significant chunks of its later ones too, took place under Asian skies.


















For starters, 37-million-year-old fossils from Burma are the best evidence yet that our branch of the primate tree originated in Asia rather than Africa.











A great deal later, after the emergence of early humans from Africa, some of our distant cousins set up shop in Asia, only to die out later. In 2012 anthropologists described for the first time human fossils unlike any others - ancient hominins dubbed the Red Deer Cave People who lived in what is now China as recently as 15,000 years ago, then vanished without further trace.












The implication is that more long-lost cousins remain to be found in South-East Asia's neglected fossil record. We know a little about the enigmatic Denisovans, for example. Their DNA was first discovered in 50,000-year-old fossil fragments from a Siberian cave in 2010, and traces of that DNA live on in modern Indonesians. Not only does this show that the Denisovans interbred with our species, it also suggests they occupied a territory so large it took in South-East Asia as well as Siberia.













Yet the only evidence we have of their existence are a finger bone and a tooth. Too long have the vast plains and forests of Asia remained untouched by the trowels and brushes of palaeoanthropologists. Teams of them are champing at the bit to explore Asia's rocks. Denisovans - and, hopefully, other ancestors, too - will not remain faceless for long.




















































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2013 Smart Guide: New maps to rein in cosmic inflation









































Read more: "2013 Smart Guide: 10 ideas that will shape the year"











We're about to get a better grasp of one of the biggest ideas in the universe: inflation. The first maps of the cosmos from the European Space Agency's Planck satellite are due out in early 2013. They should help us to hone descriptions of how, after the big bang, the universe grew from smaller than a proton into a vast expanse in less than a trillionth of a trillionth of a second.












The early universe was a featureless soup of hot plasma that somehow grew into the dense galaxy clusters and cosmic voids we know today. On a large scale, regions far apart from each other should look very different, according to the laws of thermodynamics. But studies of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) - the first light to be released, some 300,000 years after the big bang - show that the universe still looks virtually the same in all directions.












To explain this unlikely sameness, physicists invoked inflation: since all points in the universe were once next-door neighbours, the idea is that they blew apart so quickly that they couldn't forget about each other. Data from NASA's Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP), launched in 2001, bolstered a key prediction of inflation, that the universe's structure was seeded by quantum fluctuations in space-time.












Stephen Hawking recently told New Scientist that WMAP's evidence for inflation was the most exciting development in physics during his career. But a best-fit model for what drove the exponential expansion, when it began and how long it lasted, hasn't been agreed. The WMAP data also revealed some surprises, such as inexplicable patterns in the CMB. So cosmologists have been anxiously awaiting Planck's higher-resolution maps to set the record straight. The Planck team will release its first cosmological results from 15 months' worth of data in March.


















In addition, the Planck results will help refine figures for how much dark energy, dark matter and normal matter make up the universe. Planck might also record the first direct signs of ripples in space-time called gravitational waves. Not bad for a probe that's already half dead - one of Planck's two detectors stopped working in January. The entire craft will be shuttered in August.





















































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Twin attack could deliver universal flu vaccine









































A UNIVERSAL vaccine. It is the stuff of dreams for flu scientists, but it could be within reach if a new type of vaccine that elicits an immune response from white blood cells is combined with traditional vaccines.












Every year, between 250,000 and 500,000 people of all ages die worldwide after getting seasonal flu, partly because few people are vaccinated for it. When a novel human flu evolves in pigs or poultry and becomes pandemic, the numbers can be even higher. The solution is better vaccines for people and animals.












Flu comes back every year because when you catch it or are vaccinated, your immune system is only trained to identify the flu's large surface proteins. These proteins change from year to year, allowing flu to strike again if you haven't had an updated vaccine.











To end the need for continually updated shots, researchers have tried to create a vaccine for all fluMovie Camera, with varied success.













Most attempts have been vaccines designed to make us produce antibodies, aimed not at flu's surface proteins, but at internal proteins that are the same in all flu viruses. Success has been mixed. But there is another arm to the immune system. White blood cells called T-cells tend to attack a wider range of invaders than antibodies. If a vaccine sensitises them to internal flu proteins, they could potentially kill all types of flu.












Earlier this year, Sarah Gilbert and colleagues at the University of Oxford equipped the virus used in the smallpox vaccine, which stimulates this cell-mediated immunity, with two proteins common to all flu viruses. They reported that this vaccine prevented symptoms in some people experimentally infected with flu, and those that did get sick had milder symptoms.












Now Colin Butter and colleagues at the Institute for Animal Health in Compton, UK, have tested that vaccine, and a similar one made of a different live virus, in chickens (Vaccine, doi.org/jz6). Just as in people, it did not prevent infection, but the birds' T-cells responded strongly, and less of the virus was passed on.












Neither result sounds very impressive. But, says Butter, the key will be combining these vaccines with the classic kind that elicits antibodies. Gilbert reports that her team has tested such a combination in people, and has seen cell-mediated immunity to the universal proteins, as well as antibodies to specific surface proteins.












Such a combination could be more than the sum of its parts. In chickens, for example, antibodies could knock out the main virus, while T-cells mop up the variants that evade the antibodies and allow the virus to keep spreading - and evolving. "We could finally get vaccines that stop viral spread completely," says Butter.












The "universal" proteins would also give chickens and humans some protection against novel flu viruses. And because they work against all flu, such vaccines can be stockpiled to prepare for pandemics. "I'd love to have a stockpile of vaccine with both antibody and cell-mediated capabilities," says Thomas Reichert of the Entropy Research Institute in Lincoln, Massachusetts. This gives us a chance to beat an adversary we've been defeated by time and again. Or as Reichert puts it: "Now that might bring flu to the negotiating table."


























































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'The idea we live in a simulation isn't science fiction'









































If the universe is just a Matrix-like simulation, how could we ever know? Physicist Silas Beane thinks he has the answer












The idea that we live in a simulation is just science fiction, isn't it?
There is a famous argument that we probably do live in a simulation. The idea is that in future, humans will be able to simulate entire universes quite easily. And given the vastness of time ahead, the number of these simulations is likely to be huge. So if you ask the question: 'do we live in the one true reality or in one of the many simulations?', the answer, statistically speaking, is that we're more likely to be living in a simulation.












How did you end up working on this issue?
My day job is to do high performance computing simulations of the forces of nature, particularly the strong nuclear force. My colleagues and I use a grid-like lattice to represent a small chunk of space and time. We put all the forces into that little cube and calculate what happens. In effect, we're simulating a very tiny corner of the universe.












How accurate are your simulations?
We're able to calculate some of the properties of real things like the simplest nuclei. But the process also generates artefacts that don't appear in the real world and that we have to remove. So we started to think about what sort of artefacts might appear if we lived in a simulation.












What did you discover?
In our universe the laws of physics are the same in every direction. But in a grid, this changes since you no longer have a spacetime continuum, and the laws of physics would depend on direction. Simulators would be able to hide this effect but they wouldn't be able to get rid of it completely.












How might we gather evidence that we're in a simulation?
Using very high energy particles. The highest energy particles that we know of are cosmic rays and there is a well-known natural cut off in their energy at about 1020 electron volts. We calculated that if the simulators used a grid size of about 10-27 metres, then the cut off energy would vary in different directions.












Do cosmic rays vary in this way?
We don't know. The highest energy cosmic rays are very rare. A square kilometre on Earth is hit by one only about once per century so we're not going to be able map out their distribution any time soon. And even if we do, it'll be hard to show that this is conclusive proof that we're in a simulation.












But can we improve our own simulations?
The size of the universe we simulate is a just fermi, that's a box with sides 10-15 metres long. But we can use Moore's Law to imagine what we might be able to simulate in future. If the current trends in computing continue, we should be simulating a universe the size of a human within a century and within five centuries, we could manage a box 1026 metres big. That's the size of the observable universe.












How have people reacted to your work?
I gave a lecture on this topic the other week and the turnout was amazing. Half of the people looked at me as if I was disturbed and the other half were very enthusiastic.




















Profile







Silas Beane is a physicist at the University of Bonn, Germany. His paper "Constraints on the Universe as a Numerical Simulation" has been submitted to the journal Physical Review D











































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How human biology can prevent drug deaths






















Thousands of people die from adverse effects of medicines that have been tested on animals. There is a better way, say geneticist Kathy Archibald and pharmacologist Robert Coleman






















ADVERSE drug reactions are a major cause of death, killing 197,000 people annually in the European Union and upwards of 100,000 in the US. Little coverage is given to such grim statistics by governments or pharmaceutical companies, so patients and their doctors are not primed to be as vigilant as they should be, and adverse drug reactions (ADRs) remain seriously under-recognised and under-reported.












The €5.88-million EU-ADR project, which published its final report in October, showed that it is possible to spot these reactions earlier by applying data-mining techniques to electronic health records. These techniques could, for example, have detected the cardiovascular risk signals of arthritis drug Vioxx three years before the drug was withdrawn in 2004 - saving many tens of thousands of lives. But invaluable as such systems are, it would be even better to detect risk signals before a drug reaches humans, thus saving even more lives.












Currently, 92 per cent of new drugs fail clinical trials, even though they have successfully passed animal tests. This is mostly because of toxicity, which can be serious and even fatal for the people taking part in the trials. For example, in 2006, six people enrolled in a UK trial of the drug TGN1412 were hospitalised after developing multiple organ failure. Many clinical trials are now conducted in India, where, according to India's Tribune newspaper, at least 1725 people died in drug trials between 2007 and 2011. Clearly, there is an urgent need for better methods to predict the safety of medicines for patients as well as volunteers in clinical trials.












At the patient safety charity, Safer Medicines, we believe this goal is most likely to be achieved through a greatly increased focus on human, rather than animal, biology in preclinical drugs tests. New tests based on human biology can predict many adverse reactions that animal tests fail to do, and could, for example, have detected the risk signals produced by Vioxx, which in animal studies appeared to be safe, and even beneficial to the heart.












These techniques include: human tissue created by reprogramming cells from people with the relevant disease (dubbed "patient in a dish"); "body on a chip" devices, where human tissue samples on a silicon chip are linked by a circulating blood substitute; many computer modelling approaches, such as virtual organs, virtual patients and virtual clinical trials; and microdosing studies, where tiny doses of drugs given to volunteers allow scientists to study their metabolism in humans, safely and with unsurpassed accuracy. Then there are the more humble but no less valuable studies in ethically donated "waste" tissue.












These innovations promise precious insights into the functioning of the integrated human system. Many are already commercially available, but they are not being embraced with the enthusiasm they merit.












Pharmaceutical companies would make much greater use of them if governments encouraged it, but inflexible requirements for animal tests is a major deterrent. Ever since the thalidomide birth-defects tragedy, animal testing has been enshrined in law worldwide, despite the irony that more animal testing would not have prevented the release of thalidomide, because the drug harms very few species.


















So how well have animal tests protected us? Many studies have calculated the ability of animal tests to predict adverse reactions to be at or below 50 per cent. In 2008, a study in Theriogenology (vol 69, p 2) concluded: "On average, the extrapolated results from studies using tens of millions of animals fail to accurately predict human responses." And a recent study in Regulatory Toxicology and Pharmacology (vol 64, p 345) shows that animal tests missed 81 per cent of the serious side effects of 43 drugs that went on to harm patients.












It is hard to understand why governments defend a system with such a poor record, or why they are dismissive of new technologies that promise increased patient safety while decreasing the time and cost of drug development, not to mention the savings to healthcare systems from fewer adverse drug reactions. Proposals to compare human-based tests with animal-based approaches have been strongly supported by members of the UK parliament. The Early Day Motions they signed were among the most-signed of all parliamentary motions between 2005 and 2006, 2008 and 2009, and 2010 and 2012.












Safer Medicines has put these concerns to the UK Department of Health and the prime minister - to be told that "human biology-based tests are not better able to predict adverse drug reactions in humans than animal tests".












It is a tragedy that so many suffer or die through the use of inadequately tested drugs when tests based on human biology are readily available. Yet governments continue to mandate animal tests, despite the lack of a formal demonstration of fitness for purpose, and a growing global realisation among scientists that animal toxicity tests are inadequate and must be replaced.












In its 2007 report, Toxicity Testing in the 21st Century: A Vision and a Strategy, the US National Research Council called for the replacement of animal tests: "The vision for toxicity testing in the 21st century articulated here represents a paradigm shift from the use of experimental animals... toward the use of more efficient in vitro tests and computational techniques." To its credit, the US government is at least working on initiatives to hasten this. The UK government, however, still denies there is a problem. How many must die before it listens?




















Kathy Archibald is director of the Safer Medicines Trust. She is a geneticist who worked in the pharmaceutical industry.





Robert Coleman is a pharmacologist with pharmaceutical industry experience. He is now a drug discovery consultant and adviser to the trust



































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Zebrafish made to grow pre-hands instead of fins








































PERHAPS the little fish embryo shown here is dancing a jig because it has just discovered that it has legs instead of fins. Fossils show that limbs evolved from fins, but a new study shows how it may have happened, live in the lab.













Fernando Casares of the Spanish National Research Council and his colleagues injected zebrafish with the hoxd13 gene from a mouse. The protein that the gene codes for controls the development of autopods, a precursor to hands, feet and paws.












Zebrafish naturally carry hoxd13 but produce less of the protein than tetrapods - all four-limbed vertebrates and birds - do. Casares and his colleagues hoped that by injecting extra copies of the gene into the zebrafish embryos, some of their cells would make more of the protein.












One full day later, all of those fish whose cells had taken up the gene began to develop autopods instead of fins. They carried on growing for four days but then died (Cell, DOI: 10.1016/j.devcel.2012.10.015).












"Of course, we haven't been able to grow hands," says Casares. He speculates that hundreds of millions of years ago, the ancestors of tetrapods began expressing more hoxd13 for some reason and that this could have allowed them to evolve autopods.


















































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